"What's the best strategy for predicting cricket match outcomes?"
Right, mate. Forget the stats, forget the weather, forget the pitch conditions. Get yourself a crystal ball from a dodgy markets stall, ask it three times while standing on one leg, then do the exact opposite of what it says. The universe loves a contrarian. Your success rate will be roughly the same as a one-legged flamingo at a darts tournament, but at least you'll look committed.